Assad: the end is inevitable

Syria: An opaque state. An opaque regime... Hafiz al-Assad tailored and carved a state where he was the alpha and the omega. He was President, General Secretary of the ruling party, commander-in-chief of the armed forces and head of the intelligence. The "one and only", an autocrat! His family and "people" (the Alawites, his minority religious group) occupied the key state positions in Syria.

When his son Bashar al-Assad became President in 2000, some thought the path to reforms was initiated. The 10th Baath Party congress in 2005 was a beginning of hope and of democratic change. Syria then appeared more modern, more moderate. All this was sadly frustrated some years later. The old establishment blocked any attempt of change. The high hopes placed on the young and seemingly westernised new President were dashed!

Then, the new winds of the "Arab Spring" inevitably reached Syria last March.

The Assad Alawite regime answered to the uprising of its citizens with promises of change on one hand and with harshness on the other. The promises are still loosen words... But the cruelty is horrifying, with the slaughtering of 2.200 Syrians; more than 10.000 in jail!

The "Assad-Alawite-minority" regime knows the odds are against them. They are aware they are fighting for survival...Essentially, they know their place and role in a future Sunni ruled Arabic Syria will be uncertain, doubtful...harsh...

As economic conditions are worsening, should they reach breaking point the regime could well collapse. Predominantly Alawite security forces are overworked, underpaid and increasingly worried. They could conclude that the regime is unsalvageable and defect, precipitating its end, as the International Crisis Group signaled.

We must keep the pressure on the regime, applying further restrictive measures. The killings must stop! This is not negotiable. Although Syria is not Libya, we cannot be accused of having two weights and two measures when dealing with people's lives. As we have to insist on dialogue. A democratic Syria needs a transitional period and guarantees to the minorities.

This venture will not be effective until all countries are rowing in the same direction when applying restrictive measures to Syria, Clearly, this is not the case. What will the impact of the EU crude oil embargo if they keep on selling it to other countries? Look at the intolerable BRICS position: do Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have a different view of the meaning of human-rights than the rest of the world?

We welcome the fact that the Arab League is already taking the lead! In the week I am writing, its General Secretary will visit Damascus, where he will present an Initiative to solve this dramatic crises. According to Al-Hayat, it includes a call to the regime to stop its violence against civilians, to withdraw security forces and military personnel from the cities, to release all the political prisoners and protest participants, a call to separate the military from the political and civil life, the commitment for a transition to a pluralistic regime and to initiate dialogue with the opposition, mediated by the Arab League and to declare open presidential elections for 2014, at the end of his current term, and a call to establish an interim national unity government that would hold democratic parliamentary elections by the end of 2011.

The EU should strongly endorse this Initiative!

Mário David MEP

Chairman of the Mashrek Delegation

EPP Vice President